Spaghetti: systems thinking and the US Army

In the mid-2000s, the United States Army was embroiled in counterinsurgency missions in Iraq and Afghanistan that required deeper understanding of local social systems. The Army turned to systems thinking and design thinking to model and understand the world, define problems, and develop approaches to strategic and operational challenges. However, the Army’s approach as expressed in publications and doctrine encourages the development of complicated, unsupported, and unfalsifiable hypotheses. The risk is that the Army will act on incorrect assumptions and develop plans that are fragile.     

Sol-gel法制备纳米TiO_2凝胶过程的控制

以钛酸四丁酯为前驱物,采用溶胶-凝胶法制备TiO2凝胶。通过改变各原料的配比和实验条件对凝胶过程中的作用机理进行了探究。结果表明:当无水乙醇与钛酸四丁酯的摩尔比为12:1,蒸馏水与钛酸四丁酯的摩尔比为3:1,抑制剂与钛酸四丁酯的摩尔比为1:1～2:1,pH=2,最适水解温度为25℃时,制得了稳定的二氧化钛凝胶。     

装备工作TRD方法论研究

在分析装备工作复杂性特点的基础上，提出了从事装备工作需要树立系统、活动、体系、部队和设计等5个观念，构建了用于装备工作的“任务-规律-设计”方法论，设计了从事装备工作的一般逻辑步骤，讨论了该方法论的特点、运用原则及方法体系，并以装备采购工作中货源选择工作为例，验证了该方法论的实用性。     

复杂约束下的导弹作战任务规划模型和算法研究

导弹作战任务规划是一个涉及时间、资源、质量和其他关系约束的复杂问题。首先通过定义约束满足效用对基本约束满足模型进行了扩展，建立了导弹任务规划的约束满足优化模型。在此基础上，研究了任务规划模型求解的时间和效用传播算法，提出了基于综合效用的优化求解框架。该模型和求解框架易于解决具有多种约束因素的复杂问题，具有较好的通用性。通过定义软、硬约束效用，使得实际任务规划问题求解具有更好的灵活性。     

钢筋混凝土楼板耐火当量时间研究

从隔热性方面研究钢筋混凝土楼板的耐火极限，以室内火灾轰燃后的房间热平衡和热传导理论为基础，以钢筋混凝土楼板火灾中背火面的最高温度相等为原则，用计算机数值分析方法计算出楼板的隔火当量时间，并用最小二乘法回归出当量时间关于火灾荷栽密度和开口因子的计算公式，结果可使设计方法得到简化，为性能化耐火设计提供一定的参考。     

基于马尔可夫更新过程的装甲装备使用可用度模型

针对在装甲装备使用可用度评估中,采用统计评估法存在统计周期长和不能用于研制阶段的缺点,利用马尔可夫更新过程,建立了考虑工作时间、修复性维修时间、延误时间和预防性维修时间的装甲装备的稳态可用度模型,并进行了示例应用。该模型可以在装备研制阶段,根据装备各项时间参数的分布,来估计装甲装备的使用可用度,可为装备设计、装备维修间隔期规划等提供理论和方法指导。     

Optimal control policies in service systems with limited information on the downstream stage

Existing models in multistage service systems assume full information on the state of downstream stages. In this paper, we investigate how much the lack of such information impacts jobs' waiting time in a two‐stage system with two types of jobs at the first stage. The goal is to find the optimal control policy for the server at the first stage to switch between type‐1 and type‐2 jobs, while minimizing the long‐run average number of jobs in the system. We identify control policies and corresponding conditions under which having no or partial information, the system can still capture the most benefit of having full information.     

The case of Donald Rumsfeld: leadership traps in national security

Taking its point of departure in Donald Rumsfeld’s second term as US Secretary of Defense (2001–2006), this article analyses the crisis of strategic leadership in Western national security. Three “traps” are identified that explain why Donald Rumsfeld ultimately was a failure as defence secretary and demonstrate the perils of national security governance. These traps are termed the inquisitor trap, the strong leader trap and the delegation trap. It is argued that our understanding of strategic leadership in national security, particularly in defence, can benefit from insights gained from the study of strategic leadership in business. As such, this article engages the recent trend of merging insights from business and military strategy.     

基于可用度的电子设备告警系统检查策略研究

针对电子设备告警系统故障具有隐蔽性的特点,考虑检查不完善的因素,运用延迟时间概念,以系统期望可用度最大为优化目标,建立了电子设备隐蔽功能故障检查优化模型。提出了优化检查间隔期的算法,并通过实际案例验证了模型的有效性。     

基于粒子群算法的宽带真延时平面阵列方向图综合

针对大阵元间距平面阵列方向图综合问题,提出基于粒子群算法的宽带真延时平面阵列方向图综合方法。该方法根据真延时条件下阵列方向图主瓣和栅瓣指向的特点,采用宽带真延时抑制阵列方向图的栅瓣；利用粒子群优化算法优化阵列结构,得到具有较高主副瓣比的平面阵列方向图。通过对8×8的矩形平面阵进行仿真,验证了所提方法的有效性,在此基础上,还仿真研究了该方法对栅瓣的抑制性能与信号带宽之间的关系。